The Stellar (XLM) price has shown signs of stabilizing after enduring a bearish June, making a concerted effort to reclaim significant support levels. As of June 26, 2025, the XLM price sits around $0.238, reflecting a notable drop of 28% from mid-May, a period marked by a descending channel. This downward trend has raised concerns among investors, but recent developments indicate that a corrective rally might be on the horizon.
Despite the lackluster price action and a declining market cap, Stellar’s total value locked (TVL) has surprisingly increased. In an intriguing twist, the TVL growth seems inversely proportional to the falling market cap, hinting at an underlying strength in the platform’s fundamentals. This sentiment is echoed in the derivatives market, where the funding rate for XLM has turned positive, suggesting a blossoming confidence among investors. As weighted sentiment inches towards positivity, it signals a brewing momentum for XLM’s price.
Social media buzz has also added a layer of excitement. Recently, Scopuly, a DeFi wallet built on the Stellar framework, hinted via an official post on X that the time for a breakout is nigh, setting ambitious price targets at $0.46. Such endorsements can galvanize investor interest and speculation, making it a vital moment to pay attention to XLM.
On-Chain Metrics Signal a Potential Price Pump
The rise in TVL within the Stellar ecosystem reflects increasing demand and evolving market participation dynamics. According to Defilama, the total TVL of Stellar has surged to $86.7 million, a striking recovery from 2024’s low of just $7.2 million, highlighting an impressive 11-fold increase in just four months. This growth in TVL stands in stark contrast to XLM’s declining price, potentially indicating that a price correction might be overdue, given the project’s underlying strength.
Moreover, from earlier in 2025, Stellar’s TVL has nearly doubled, signaling rising investor trust despite general market uncertainties. The stark contrast between the escalating TVL and the declining market cap raises intriguing questions about the potential for an imminent price surge in XLM.
Another bullish indicator is the positive shift in funding rates for XLM. Data from CoinGlass suggests that fewer traders are betting against XLM, as evidenced by the OI-Weighted Funding Rate’s recent turnaround to positive territory. Generally speaking, a positive funding rate indicates bullish sentiment, while a negative rate suggests bearishness. The shift from a negative to a positive funding rate can be a powerful indicator that investors anticipate price increases in the near term.
Furthermore, the positive sentiment surrounding XLM is supported by Santiment’s sentiment analysis, which shows a rise in bullish sentiment as XLM’s price sought support close to a critical level identified by the “FR volume profile” tool around $0.225. This indicates a shift in emotional responses among traders, with negative sentiment waning and positive sentiment beginning to prevail.
Additionally, an analysis by Dune illustrates rising activity on the Stellar network, with a notable increase in active addresses. In May alone, active addresses totaled 263.25K, including 89.59K new addresses, underscoring a growing interest in Stellar’s offerings and fueling expectations for potential price movements.
Can XLM Price Break Free from the Bearish Structure?
Currently, the XLM price finds itself confined within a descending channel that has drained investor morale over the past months. However, it has now reached a pivotal level where it previously demonstrated resilience in Q4 2024. The positive momentum from rising on-chain data and the cryptocurrency’s ability to maintain multi-month support levels indicate that a price rally could be on the near horizon.
As XLM hovers near the upper boundary of this channel for almost 45 days, the adherence to this pattern suggests that a breakout could be imminent. If the price manages to breach this upper limit, a retest of the $0.40 mark could be within reach in the short term. Conversely, should it fail to hold support, a further decline to the $0.15 level could pose a risk, making the next few days crucial for XLM traders and enthusiasts.
