 
 
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts are buzzing with speculation about the elusive “altcoin season.” This period is marked by alternative cryptocurrencies—those aside from Bitcoin—rocketing in value and surpassing Bitcoin’s performance. But what does this mean for investors, and is an altcoin rally truly on the horizon?
Entrepreneur and Bitcoin investor Lark Davis has voiced his perspective on the current market landscape. Despite Bitcoin’s impressive bullish performance, he points out a notable lack of excitement within the broader cryptocurrency market. Davis believes that excitement hinges on the onset of the anticipated altcoin season.
“This cycle has been mostly about Bitcoin so far. Even though BTC smashed through all-time highs, there’s no excitement in the market. The reason is simple: Everyone and their dog are sitting in altcoins, and that’s why even though BTC is near ATHs, altcoin index is sitting at 27 (real altseason starts at 75),” he wrote, emphasizing the mismatch between Bitcoin’s performance and altcoin activity.
Bitcoin itself has been on a remarkable journey, kicking off 2025 above the $90,000 price mark, momentarily surging to $100,000 in late January and February. Recently, the flagship cryptocurrency achieved a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,970, although it retreated slightly to trade at approximately $109,795 as of this writing.
 
In contrast, analyst Benjamin Cowen has adopted a more cautious view. He noted that altcoin pairs against Bitcoin are currently trading at alarmingly low levels. His skepticism is underscored by a downward trend observed within the altcoin market over the past four years. “ALT/BTC pairs just put in their lowest weekly close all cycle. Those who call for alt season each week may sound confident and contrarian, but altcoins have been bleeding to Bitcoin almost non-stop since 2021,” Cowen remarked, presenting a sobering outlook for altcoin investors.
Where is “altcoin season”?
The concept of altcoin season is often expected to materialize about six to nine months following Bitcoin halving events, which historically have been pivotal moments in market cycles. After the halving, analysts closely monitor altcoin performance, utilizing indexes designed to evaluate how the top 50 altcoins are faring relative to Bitcoin.
These indexes incorporate various indicators, such as increased trading volumes, rising altcoin market dominance, and frequent price breakouts. Currently, altcoin season indexes are hovering around 16, suggesting that only 16% of existing altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. This statistic raises questions about the viability of an imminent altcoin season.
It’s also essential to acknowledge that altcoins do not always outperform Bitcoin; in fact, there are periods when altcoins fall flat, either trading sideways or plummeting in value. The current market conditions point to a complicated picture, one that continues to evolve as the cryptocurrency landscape shifts.
