XRP ETF Inflows Could Propel Prices into Three Digits: Insights from Market Commentary
Recent developments in the cryptocurrency market have reignited interest in XRP, particularly following the launch of two notable ETFs: Canary Capital’s XRPC and Bitwise’s XRP. Grayscale, a significant player in the crypto fund space, plans to debut its own XRP fund, GXRP, today, further intensifying discussions around the potential impact of these ETFs on XRP’s price trajectory. While the market has seen its share of ups and downs, a well-known market commentator, Zach Rector, has presented an intriguing perspective on how these ETF inflows could push XRP prices into the three-digit realm.
Understanding the Correlation Between ETFs and Price Dynamics
Rector recently analyzed historical data on Bitcoin’s performance following the introduction of its own ETFs. He noted that between January 11, 2024, and October 10, 2025, Bitcoin attracted a staggering $62.25 billion in ETF inflows. This significant inflow, however, was contrasted by notable outflows that saw $24.31 billion exiting Bitcoin exchanges during the same period. Rector argued that the net impact of these inflows—calculated at approximately $37.94 billion—bolstered Bitcoin’s price, allowing it to break past the $100,000 mark.
In his video commentary, Rector explained that this pattern highlighted a crucial aspect of market dynamics: institutional demand, facilitated through ETFs, tends to stabilize the cryptocurrency market. Large holders of Bitcoin capitalized on this stability while offloading their assets on centralized exchanges, leading to a fundamental shift in how Bitcoin was traded and valued.
Rector’s Analysis of XRP: Sensitivity to Inflows
When applying similar methods to XRP, Rector pointed out that XRP has a uniquely smaller market cap compared to Bitcoin, making it more sensitive to new inflows. For instance, during the week ending November 16, 2025, XRP experienced $456 million in outflows—substantially lower than Bitcoin’s multi-billion-dollar outflows. This sensitivity means that any positive inflow can lead to significant price multipliers for XRP.
Using XRP’s current price of $1.95, a circulating supply of 60.25 billion, and a market cap of $117.5 billion, Rector explored three potential multiplier scenarios: 50X, 100X, and 200X.
Potential Price Scenarios: Multipliers in Action
Under the 50X multiplier scenario, if there were $5 billion in inflows, the price of XRP could surge to $6. A $10 billion inflow could push XRP to $10, while a significant $50 billion inflow might elevate the price to around $43.
Rector further detailed the 100X multiplier scenario. Here, a $5 billion inflow could take XRP to $10; $20 billion might push it to $35, and $50 billion could lead it to $84.
A fascinating aspect of Rector’s analysis came in the 200X multiplier scenario. He noted that XRP has historically displayed such considerable fluctuations, using real examples from past market behavior. If $5 billion flowed into the XRP ETF, the price could leap to $18, with $10 billion bringing it to $35. An inflow of $20 billion could raise the price to $68, while a whopping $30 billion inflow could drive it past the $100 mark, directly aligning it with a price of approximately $101. Finally, a $50 billion inflow could elevate XRP to a remarkable $167.88.
The Trends of ETF Inflows: What Lies Ahead for XRP?
Interestingly, Rector made a case for the potential of XRP to attract significant inflows over time, drawing parallels with Bitcoin, which already attracted $50 billion in ETF inflows in a year and nine months. Market experts, including JPMorgan, have projected inflows of between $4 billion and $8 billion for XRP, while Canary Capital’s CEO anticipates seeing $5 to $10 billion within the first month of the ETF launch.
Rector emphasizes that his projections are not predictions, but rather observations based on existing data. He is keen on stressing that investors should approach his analysis with caution, given the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies. The landscape of XRP and its price potential is influenced by a myriad of factors, including market sentiment, regulatory changes, and broader economic conditions.
