On-chain report from CryptoQuant shows that short-term “New Whales” now hold 52.4% of Bitcoin’s Whales Realized Cap, overtaking long-term holders for the first time.
Currently, BTC is trading around $96,800, driven by a surge of fresh capital entering the market, even at high price levels. This dynamic raises fascinating questions about the shifting landscape of Bitcoin ownership and its implications for the future.
New Bitcoin Whales Collectively Hold More Assets than Long-Term Holders
Understanding the concept of realized cap is crucial in this context. It values each Bitcoin at the price it last moved on-chain. According to CryptoQuant analyst JA Maartunn, addresses active within the last 155 days are categorized as New Whales, while dormant ones are no longer considered Old Whales.
This shift has notable financial implications. New Whales possess an average cost basis of $91,922, contrasting starkly with Old Whales, whose average sits at $31,765. This change in capital distribution is unprecedented within the Bitcoin ecosystem and signals a potential shift in market dynamics.
Historical data reveals that from 2015 to late 2019, New Bitcoin Whales accounted for less than 5% of whale realized cap as the price escalated from $200 to $10,000. However, during the 2020–early 2021 bull run, they gained traction, ultimately increasing their share to about 25% as retail and institutional investors entered the fray.
The subsequent bear market from 2021 to 2022 saw New Whale participation plummet below 10% during the capitulation phase. Yet, by mid-2023, recovery trends pushed their share back toward 20%. Remarkably, since mid-2024, the price of Bitcoin has dramatically surged from $30,000 to $100,000, coinciding with an increase in New Whales’ share from 20% to 52.4%.
In contrast, the realized cap held by Old Bitcoin Whales now accounts for only 47.6% of the total, clearly underscoring the significant shift in market composition.
What Does it Mean for Bitcoin’s Price Dynamics?
The implications of this data for Bitcoin’s price dynamics are profound. With more than half of Bitcoin’s whale-level capital now in the hands of relatively recent investors, it suggests that the market is being significantly influenced by those who acquired Bitcoin at higher price points. Over the last few months, the demand created by these New Whales has driven BTC upward, with substantial purchases around $90,000 facilitating the climb toward $97,000.
However, it’s crucial to note that New Whales have an average entry price around $92,000, which leaves them with only minor unrealized gains. Should Bitcoin dip below this level, it could prompt a rush to sell, adding significant downward pressure on the market. In contrast, Old Whales, having bought in at an average of $31,000, possess little incentive to sell, effectively limiting the available supply on the market from that demographic.
In essence, the current strength of Bitcoin hinges on these high-cost New Whales. If they hold their positions, the upward trend is likely to continue. Conversely, should they begin selling near their break-even point, sharper price fluctuations could ensue. This new dynamic in Bitcoin’s market structure makes it a particularly interesting time for traders and investors alike, as the actions of these New Whales will dictate much of the market’s next steps.
