The Bitcoin market has been exhibiting notable indecision over the past week, oscillating between the $117,000 and $120,000 consolidation range. However, recent developments have seen the flagship cryptocurrency tumble closer to the $115,000 mark. This decline coincides with a significant movement of coins toward centralized exchanges, prompting speculation about potential market volatility.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, market expert Aksel Kibar has issued a particularly gloomy forecast for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the coming weeks. According to Kibar, the recent price action may well be just the beginning of a downward trend that could deepen in the days ahead.
Understanding the Risks of Continued Decline
On July 25, Kibar shared his insights via the social media platform X, articulating his concerns following Bitcoin’s dip to $115,000. He posits that the cryptocurrency may target levels around $109,000 in the near term, heightening concerns for investors and traders alike.
The basis of Kibar’s bearish outlook lies in the technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price chart, specifically the inverse head-and-shoulder formation observed on the weekly timeframe. This pattern typically consists of three distinct troughs: a lower “head” flanked by two higher “shoulders.” While an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern generally signals potential bullish breakout opportunities, Kibar suggests that the current factors at play may deviate from the norm.
Traditionally, an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is considered validated only after the price breaks through the neckline—essentially a trendline connecting the swing highs between the head. While Bitcoin has achieved a new all-time high, Kibar highlights the uniqueness of the current breakout. Unlike typical scenarios, where the market may continue to rise, Kibar notes that historical data reveal a pattern of pullbacks and retests following many head-and-shoulder breakouts.
Chart analyses dating back to May 2017 show a clear tendency for Bitcoin prices to engage in type 2 continuation patterns—characterized by retests—more frequently than embarking on direct rallies (type 1 continuation) post-breakout. This insight significantly informs Kibar’s predictions, indicating that a price decline is feasible as the cryptocurrency grapples with overhead resistance.
If Bitcoin does experience a rollback consistent with a type 2 continuation, it could retreat toward the neckline, positioning the price around the $109,000 mark. Such a movement would represent an approximate 5% decline from its current levels, underscoring the fragile nature of the current market dynamics.
Bitcoin’s Current Market Position
As of the latest updates following what many described as a tumultuous start to the trading day, Bitcoin appears to be finding some stability after its descent to $115,000. Presently, the cryptocurrency is trading around $117,323, which reflects a modest 0.6% decline over the past 24 hours. This slight recovery may provide some reassurance, but uncertainty still looms large in the market.
As traders keep a close eye on Bitcoin’s moves, the sentiment remains mixed. With fears of extended corrections and potential market shifts, all participants—whether long-term holders or day traders—are urged to remain vigilant as the landscape continues to evolve.
