Bitcoin’s Recent Rally: A Step Towards Recovery
Bitcoin is on a mission to recover from recent setbacks, managing to reclaim the crucial $95,000 mark. This development has sparked a flicker of short-term optimism among investors, pushing BTC to a notable two-month high. However, it’s important to recognize that the recovery journey remains far from complete; Bitcoin now faces a substantial challenge ahead. The resistance zone between $98,000 and $110,000 stands as its toughest hurdle yet, characterized by significant selling pressure.
Bitcoin Holders’ Selling Opportunities
To understand Bitcoin’s challenges, one must look at the Long-Term Holder Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap. Since November 2025, each market rebound has encountered stiff resistance within a dense supply cluster from approximately $93,000 to $110,000. This area comprises coins acquired during past peaks, and it has consistently exerted selling pressure each time Bitcoin’s price ventures back into this range.
Every upward attempt into this resistance zone has resulted in renewed distribution from long-term holders. As a direct consequence, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain structural recoveries despite several breakout attempts.Being back at this overhead supply area puts the market on familiar ground, requiring a strong absorption of sell pressure to initiate any meaningful trend reversal.
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Understanding Long-Term Profit and Loss Dynamics
From a broader perspective, the Net Realized Profit and Loss metrics for long-term holders provide insight into market behavior. Currently, long-term holders are realizing roughly 12,800 BTC per week in net profit — a sharp decline from the spectacular peaks seen in previous cycles, where figures exceeded 100,000 BTC weekly.
This slowdown in profit-taking indicates less aggressive selling, which reduces immediate downside risk. However, it doesn’t entirely eliminate selling pressure, leaving market direction increasingly reliant on demand strength. The focus shifts to buyers who accumulated Bitcoin during Q2 2025; should demand falter in absorbing supply, upward momentum may dissolve.
The Importance of the True Market Mean
A crucial long-term benchmark for Bitcoin is the True Market Mean, currently situated around $81,000. Sustaining trading patterns above this level can foster a more positive macro outlook for the cryptocurrency market. Conversely, failure to maintain this threshold could elevate capitulation risk, reminiscent of the prolonged drawdowns experienced between April 2022 and April 2023.
Challenges Ahead as BTC Approaches Key Resistance
As of now, Bitcoin trades near $96,302 — marking its highest point in two months. Surpassing $95,000 has provided a boost to market sentiment, nudging BTC closer to the critical $98,000 resistance level. The short-term outlook stays constructive as long as the price maintains above recently reclaimed support areas.
However, breaking through the $98,000 barrier and maintaining levels above $95,000 is likely to be challenging. The market is rife with overhead supply, and any resurgence in selling activity could swiftly erase recent gains. If investors opt to secure profits, Bitcoin might retreat below the $95,000 threshold, potentially leading to a deeper pullback near $91,471.
A bullish scenario could emerge if long-term holders further reduce selling. Should distribution activity decrease, Bitcoin may then break through the $98,000 resistance, enticing it toward the coveted $100,000 mark. Successfully converting this psychological level into support would greatly enhance market sentiment, paving a more feasible path toward $110,000; however, new resistance dynamics are expected beyond the six-figure realm.
