Bitcoin Price Forecast 2025: A Shift in Expectations

Bitcoin’s remarkable journey has been marked by unprecedented volatility, and as we venture into 2025, its trajectory is undergoing notable changes. Recent analysis from British multinational bank Standard Chartered has painted a more cautious outlook, highlighting a critical shift in market dynamics.

Standard Chartered Cuts Bitcoin Price Forecast

In a recent report, Standard Chartered announced a significant reduction in its 2025 Bitcoin price target. The forecast dropped to $100,000, a substantial decline from the previous estimate of $200,000. However, the bank’s long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains intact at $500,000, although this projection has now been extended from 2028 to 2030. This adjustment reflects a growing concern about Bitcoin’s demand trends and the changing landscape of corporate purchasing.

Reassessment of Demand Trends

Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick noted a key factor contributing to this downgrade: the waning aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin by corporations. Last year, companies like MicroStrategy actively increased their holdings, fueling optimism in the market. Kendrick argues that this phase of corporate accumulation has “run its course,” which creates a gap in demand that future gains will need to address. As a result, the market’s reliance on exchange-traded fund (ETF) buying becomes ever more pronounced.

ETF Demand Shows Signs of Cooling

While ETFs have been instrumental in providing stability to Bitcoin prices, recent trends indicate a slowdown in this area. Quarterly inflows have plummeted to just 50,000 BTC, marking the lowest level observed since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. This is a stark drop from the robust inflows of 450,000 BTC per quarter seen late last year. Such diminished demand complicates the outlook for Bitcoin, as ETF purchases have previously underpinned price stability, particularly when market volatility arose.

The Role of ETF Inflows in Price Support

Despite the slowdown, ETF purchases have upheld Bitcoin’s price during challenging periods. Even as Bitcoin teetered just above the $90,000 level, US spot Bitcoin ETFs were consistently making purchases. This activity has served as a critical support mechanism for prices, especially during significant corrections in the market. In particular, the periods from March to August 2024 and January to April 2025 saw Bitcoin prices rebound near the ETFs’ aggregate cost basis, suggesting that even modest inflows can exert considerable influence on market dynamics.

Political Pressure and Federal Reserve Implications

The changing landscape also extends beyond market mechanisms, with political factors increasingly impacting Bitcoin and other risk-on assets. The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could signal a shift towards a more lenient economic policy, potentially drawing investors back to Bitcoin. With anticipation building over a possible quarter-point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, market participants are keenly watching for guidance regarding monetary policy and its influence on Bitcoin in 2026.

Evolution of Halving-Cycle Models

Traditionally, Bitcoin’s price forecasts have leaned heavily on historical halving cycles, but analysts like Kendrick warn that these models may no longer hold water. He asserts that the current environment is distinct, with “crypto winters” perhaps being a thing of the past. This sentiment is echoed among users on prediction markets, who assign only a 6% probability to the chances of entering a new crypto winter by early 2026, further underscoring a shift in market psychology.

Near-Term Outlook Affected by Upcoming Events

As Bitcoin’s price hovers around the $90,000 mark, the near-term outlook is heavily contingent on the Federal Reserve’s decisions in the forthcoming FOMC meeting. Analysts agree that the outcomes of such meetings often set the tone for overall market sentiment and could lead to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price.

FAQs

What is Standard Chartered’s new Bitcoin 2025 target?
The bank now anticipates Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of 2025.

Did the bank change its long-term Bitcoin forecast?
No, the long-term target of $500,000 remains unchanged; however, the timeline has been extended from 2028 to 2030.

The evolving narrative surrounding Bitcoin illustrates a market in transition, impacted by shifting demand dynamics, regulatory considerations, and changing investor psychology. As we look ahead, the confluence of these factors will play a pivotal role in shaping Bitcoin’s future trajectory.