Bitcoin Bear Market: Early Signs and Projections for 2026
Bitcoin is currently treading through the nascent stages of a bear market, as indicated by various on-chain and market metrics. Experts predict that this trend will persist throughout 2026, with prices expected to decline rather than achieve new all-time highs. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, attributes this bearish outlook primarily to weakening demand in the market.
On-Chain Data Confirms Bear Market
The debate continues among investors regarding the future trajectory of Bitcoin. However, Moreno asserts that Bitcoin has already been in a bear market since November 2025. According to him, nearly every on-chain and market metric points to a single conclusion: we are in the early phases of a bear market.
“Basically every on-chain metric or market metric confirms that we are in a bear market in the early stages,” he remarked during a recent episode of BeInCrypto’s podcast.
Moreno is not just highlighting price movements but is also backed by solid fundamentals that illustrate a dwindling demand. The expectation is that prices will skew more towards a downward trend in the upcoming months.
“The question is how long it lasts or how low prices go, but from where we are starting, I wouldn’t expect new all-time highs,” he added.
Bitcoin Demand Engine Starts Breaking
The demand for Bitcoin has been experiencing a significant contraction over recent months. Utilizing data from CryptoQuant, Moreno has been tracking the flow of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which significantly influenced demand patterns.
ETFs provided substantial support for Bitcoin from 2024 into 2025, as they were pivotal in drawing institutional inflows. The launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs created an uptick in risk appetite, enabling institutional entities to invest more freely.
However, Moreno notes a stark reversal in this trend.
“ETFs have become net sellers of Bitcoin since at least early November,” he stated. “They were aggressively buying, then there was a slowdown, and now they are not buying; they are selling.”
This withdrawal of institutional investment has made the lack of demand palpable.
Forced Selling Risk Enters Focus
Last year, Bitcoin experienced a wave of institutional adoption, with many companies, especially those focusing on treasury assets, accumulating Bitcoin. Notable examples include MicroStrategy, which led the charge, followed closely by firms like MetaPlanet and MARA Holdings.
Yet, this rush to acquire Bitcoin seems to have waned.
“Other than MicroStrategy, basically all the Bitcoin treasury companies have stopped buying. If prices continue declining, there is a higher risk that we will see some companies forced to sell their holdings,” Moreno explained.
With companies ceasing to purchase additional Bitcoin, the risk of forced selling emerges as a serious concern, potentially escalating volatility in price.
Moreno even speculates that Bitcoin prices could reach a low of around $56,000 in the near future due to these shifting dynamics.
Despite this bearish sentiment, Moreno emphasizes that the long-term outlook for Bitcoin is fundamentally dependent on a reversal in demand trends.
“The moment demand stops contracting and starts to grow again, that’s when the market structure changes,” he remarked.
Until there’s visible evidence of a demand recovery on-chain, a cautious approach remains prudent for investors navigating this uncertain landscape.
By examining these various facets—from demand indicators to the emerging risks of forced selling—it’s evident that Bitcoin is currently facing a turbulent phase, with uncertain prospects looming large for the near future.
