Ethereum Nears $2,970 as Market Dynamics Shift

As Ethereum closes 2025 at approximately $2,970, market sentiment is divided. Some analysts foresee a potential growth cycle on the horizon, while others caution against the current uncertain structure. Delving deeper reveals a complex narrative: while there are signs of early support, hesitation lingers due to mixed market signals.

Bearish Price Structure Meets a Historically Volatile Start

Analyzing Ethereum’s chart on a 3-day interval presents a rising channel that resembles a bear flag. Should the price dip below this channel, the ensuing bearish movement could lead to a decline of roughly 44%, aligning with the implications of the flag pattern.

Note: The likelihood of a breakdown decreases if Ethereum can maintain its position within the channel for a more extended period.

Compounding this bearish outlook is the seasonality of Ethereum’s price movements. Historically, January has been a strong month, boasting an average increase of around 33%. However, January 2025 began on the wrong foot, marking the start of four consecutive months of declines. Should the bear flag materialize, the anticipated seasonal momentum may falter once again.

The notion of a significant price surge, with some experts projecting Ethereum could range between $7,000 and $9,000 in 2026, seems ambitious under the current conditions. The pessimistic landscape challenges such optimistic forecasts.

Insights from Analysts

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget, emphasizes the need for essential shifts in capital flows and real Ethereum usage before anticipating a surge. "Capital must stop leaving Ethereum, and real usage must grow beyond today’s pilots," he noted. Additionally, for Ethereum’s price to gain traction, long-term supply must stay locked away.

On-Chain Flows Show Hope, But Not Conviction Yet

While some on-chain indicators hint at a potential reversal, conviction remains weak. Notably, long-term holders have recently resumed buying. The Hodler Net Position Change metric turned positive on December 26, indicating renewed interest from long-term investors. However, this positive shift is cautious, highlighting the careful nature of current investments.

The increasing Ethereum staking entry queue, surpassing the exit path, suggests accumulation. report reveals that over 740,000 ETH is awaiting entry into staking, while only about half that amount is set to exit. Nearly 30% of the total ETH supply is already staked. While this signals an intent to lock in supply, the volume remains insufficient for a strong trend reversal; it points to interest rather than robust leadership.

Whale movements also impact the narrative. After witnessing a decrease to approximately 100.01 million ETH held off exchanges in late November, this figure rose to 101.21 million ETH by year-end, amounting to around $3.6 billion in accumulation. However, this still falls short of the peak levels seen in early November, suggesting that whale demand is supportive but not decisive.

The ETF Gap

A significant gap in the bullish argument lies in ETF flows. Spot ETH ETFs experienced approximately $1.97 billion in outflows as both November and December closed with negative figures. Ryan Lee points out that these outflows create an environment where large capital continues to exit the ecosystem, thus constraining Ethereum’s price potential.

2026 Roadmap Depends On Key Ethereum Price Levels

The connection between chart analysis and Ryan’s foresight underscores the importance of certain price levels for Ethereum. For the bullish flag structure to remain intact, Ethereum must hold above $2,760. A breach of this level could expose subsequent support at $2,650 and $2,400. Should a more pronounced breakdown occur, it could lead the price toward levels of $2,140 or $1,780, ultimately confirming a decline toward $1,320.

Conversely, for a bullish shift, Ethereum needs to surpass $3,470, allowing it to challenge the upper boundary. Moving above $3,670 could potentially flip the trend, but a real breakout may not occur until Ethereum reclaims the $4,770 level—the origin of the flagpole.

Only once this key resistance is broken do price targets in the $7,000 to $9,000 range become feasible. However, Ryan emphasizes that even in that scenario, the trajectory of growth will likely be slow and conditional.

Looking ahead, macroeconomic factors may play a role in leadership within the crypto space. If liquidity improves due to easing policies, Bitcoin might respond first, with Ethereum following closely behind—dependent on factors like heightened staking demand and stabilized ETF flows. Until these elements align, Ethereum’s trajectory remains uneven—caught between potential recovery and imminent risk.