Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price shows signs of undervaluation based on on-chain transaction activity.
- Heavy futures selling continues to affect short-term price movement.
- Market watchers point to past cycles to explain renewed bullish expectations.
Bitcoin (USD) price is currently experiencing a valuation reset. Traders, analysts, and long-term holders are closely observing the shifting signals in the market. Elements such as on-chain data, futures trading activities, and historical market cycles are playing pivotal roles in shaping expectations about Bitcoin’s price direction.
While selling pressure remains significant, some market observers are optimistic about a potential recovery phase for Bitcoin, leaning on patterns observed in previous cycles. This analysis aims to break down these dynamics further.
Bitcoin USD Price and the Valuation Reset
Recent discussions regarding BTC valuation resets have gained traction, particularly following a new analysis of the NVT Golden Cross indicator. This metric plays a crucial role in comparing Bitcoin’s market value with its transaction activity. By doing so, it helps investors gauge whether the current price reflects actual usage on the network.
In the most recent downturn, the NVT indicator reflected alarming figures, showcasing a significant divergence between price and transaction activity. At its lowest, the indicator plummeted to about minus 0.58. Such levels have been previously witnessed during times of forced selling and diminished risk appetite in the market.
This disconnect often signals that Bitcoin’s price weakness stemmed more from leverage unwinding than a dip in network demand. Although market conditions may appear bleak, transaction activity typically remains more stable than market value. This implies that the observed price drop could indicate undervaluation rather than a declining utility of the network.
As this metric has recently improved to about minus 0.32, it signals that Bitcoin’s pricing is gradually aligning back with its underlying fundamentals. Nevertheless, since the measurement is still negative, this suggests that Bitcoin’s current value is still below historical averages when compared to transaction volume.
Market analysts indicate that such valuation resets commonly occur during periods of market consolidation. Historical observations have pointed out that past cycles have demonstrated similar resets during broader market turbulence, often followed by price stabilization as selling pressure starts to diminish.
It’s vital to note that while this indicator does not forecast short-term price movements, it provides valuable insight into how investors view the network’s value at any given moment. Present readings lean towards cautious pricing, steering clear of unfounded optimism.
Heavy Futures Selling Continues To Pressure Bitcoin Price
Despite the recent signs of a valuation adjustment, selling pressure from the futures market remains a significant force impacting Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Data reveals an astounding over $7.3 billion in taker sell volume executed in just six hours, highlighting the aggressive positioning of traders engaging in leverage.
Such robust futures selling could suppress any potential price recovery, even in cases where spot market demand remains steady. While some futures trading might be related to hedging strategies rather than sheer panic selling, it invariably adds pressure in times of low liquidity and heightened market uncertainty.
As of the latest report, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $87,974.31, reflecting a 0.75% increase over the prior 24 hours. The market capitalization was estimated at $1.75 trillion, accompanied by trading volume surging to about $58.33 billion, a 31% increase. These indicators suggest that, despite the prevailing caution among traders, market activity remains active.
The combined effect of increasing trading volumes and persistent selling implies a divided sentiment among market participants. Some traders are gearing up for further declines, while others are anticipating a rebound, leading to potential short-term volatility.
Amid these varied market sentiments, industry figures are leaning on historical market behavior to contextualize current conditions. For example, Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, emphasized that similar drawdowns have frequently occurred in crypto markets. Typically, rapid declines are succeeded by recoveries that surpass previous highs.
Horsley also drew parallels between the current situation and the earlier part of 2025, when the first quarter faced weakness, but the market experienced positive gains in the following quarters. His remarks underscore a recurring pattern in investor behavior during market fluctuations, where fear tends to spike during downturns, but rebounds often catch many off-guard.
It’s essential to recognize that while these perspectives reflect a degree of confidence in long-term market structure, they should not be interpreted as definite timing predictions. The idea that past patterns can serve as a reference point remains prevalent, yet they cannot guarantee future performances.
The primary focus remains on the conditions surrounding Bitcoin’s price valuation reset. As the price progressively aligns with transaction activity, analysts are hopeful that the market may transition toward a more stable phase. For now, Bitcoin, valued in USD, remains in a state of flux, profoundly influenced by ongoing selling pressures, cautious market sentiment, and careful scrutiny of on-chain indicators.
