XRP Enters a Critical Technical Phase: Analyzing the Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

As XRP approaches a pivotal moment this week, traders are placing their attention on a developing symmetrical triangle pattern. This formation closely mirrors Bitcoin’s consolidation phase before its breakout in early 2024, suggesting that XRP might be gearing up for a significant price movement. With ETF inflows stabilizing, regulatory clarity increasing, and the emergence of an Elliott Wave structure on lower timeframes, XRP finds itself at a crucial crossroads that could determine its trend trajectory into November 2025.

Triangle Pattern Resembles Bitcoin’s 2024 Setup

Analysis reveals that XRP’s current symmetrical triangle formation near the $2.65 level is strikingly similar to Bitcoin’s breakout from a $24,000 consolidation phase earlier this year. This correlation is highlighted by market analyst Steph_iscrypto, who notes the potential for XRP to mirror Bitcoin’s explosive price action if it successfully breaks out of its triangle.

XRP’s $2.65 symmetrical triangle mirrors Bitcoin’s 2024 breakout, hinting at a potential explosive move. Source: @Steph_iscrypto via X

However, it’s important to recognize that symmetrical triangles come with varying breakout success rates influenced by market conditions. While Bitcoin’s past triangles following heavy liquidity inflows have shown higher probabilities of upward continuation, XRP’s historical attempts at breakout have yielded mixed results. Previous formations faced challenges from regulatory pressure, reduced liquidity, and broader market risk aversion.

This time, though, the environment seems more favorable: with improved regulatory clarity, access to ETFs, and a notable uptick in institutional order flow, XRP is benefiting from structural support not seen in earlier cycles. Still, successful breakout confirmation will require significant trading volume at the upper boundary of the pattern.

ETF Momentum Adds Stability

The regulatory landscape surrounding XRP underwent a significant change following the favorable settlement between Ripple and the SEC, which resulted in a $125 million resolution in August 2025. This development has alleviated years of uncertainty about XRP’s regulatory status and fostered renewed engagement from U.S. exchanges and asset managers.

The launch of seven spot XRP ETFs on November 13, 2025, further bolstered market confidence, generating approximately $58 million in first-day volume. Even though XRP experienced an 8% drop in a “sell-the-news” reaction, the underlying demand for these ETF products establishes a more sustainable liquidity foundation rather than just a fleeting speculative spike.

The resurgence of buying interest from Japan and South Korea—regions known for their strong adoption of XRP—has also reinforced steady inflows in recent weeks. This cross-regional demand plays a vital role in creating a more stable liquidity profile, essential for sustaining a potential triangle breakout.

XRP/BTC Pair Signals Structural Improvement

Traders are closely monitoring the XRP/BTC trading pair as a critical sentiment gauge. Analyst @jaydee_757 has highlighted a potential weekly resistance break supported by a bullish MACD crossover—a technical indicator often associated with strengthened relative momentum when confirmed over higher timeframes.

A weekly breakout on the XRP/BTC chart could signal XRP outperforming Bitcoin, according to the trader’s technical setup. Source: @jaydee_757 via X

Should XRP manage to close above its long-term descending trendline, it would mark the most significant structural improvement against Bitcoin since mid-2021. Historically, XRP rallies tend to perform better when its BTC pair trends upward, indicating improving capital rotation rather than isolated price volatility. However, traders typically prefer multi-week confirmations and consistent volume before considering such transitions as definitive trend reversals.

Elliott Wave Analysis Targets $2.62

Recent analysis of XRP’s 4-hour chart shows a developing Elliott Wave structure, suggesting a potential Wave 3 targeting a price of $2.62. This target aligns with the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle, forming a key confluence zone for traders.

XRP Elliott Wave analysis shows Wave 3 targeting $2.62, with $2.31 as key invalidation for the bullish setup. Source: abdulahalkasid on TradingView

The target for Wave 3 at $2.62 and potential Wave 4 pullback will be evaluated after Wave 3 concludes. The expected Wave 5 projections aim to complete a higher timeframe impulsive structure. A close below $2.31 could invalidate the current bullish impulse count, pushing traders to adapt their expectations toward a corrective scenario. XRP’s previous formations have frequently been invalidated during periods of low liquidity or fluctuating ETF inflows, underscoring the importance of effective risk management.

Additional Supporting Fundamentals

Beyond technical indicators, several fundamental factors bolster the current setup for XRP:

• Increased On-Chain Activity: Transactions on the XRP Ledger have seen a slight uptick, indicating heightened application-level usage rather than merely speculative trading.
• Ecosystem Development: Ripple is pursuing new institutional partnerships in Asia and the Middle East, areas known for fostering long-term utility-driven demand.
• Market Liquidity Improvements: The recent U.S. ETF listings have enhanced the stability and depth of order books compared to earlier in 2023 and 2024, although overall crypto liquidity remains below peak levels experienced during Bitcoin’s early 2024 surge.

These elements collectively enhance the backdrop but do not guarantee XRP’s ability to replicate Bitcoin’s prior performance.

Preparing for Potential Volatility

As XRP nears the apex of its symmetrical triangle, traders are bracing for a potential spike in volatility. The nature of this volatility—whether it will manifest as an upward breakout or a continued consolidation phase—will heavily rely on the strength of incoming liquidity and market behavior in response to key support levels, particularly the $2.31 threshold.

While excitement is palpable within the community surrounding XRP, the importance of vigilance in trackin metrics such as trading volume at the triangle’s boundaries and price action resilience during upward fluctuations cannot be overstated.