A Deep Dive into XRP’s Recent Surge and Market Dynamics

Key Takeaways

• Profits Shining Bright: XRP’s most-profitable investors are cashing in over $68 million in daily profits, reminiscent of the pre-2017 market peak.
• Market Vulnerability: Over 70% of XRP’s realized market cap has formed since late 2024, creating a top-heavy market susceptible to sharp corrections.
• Potential Decline: If the trend of selling continues among newer holders, XRP may face a decline of approximately 35%, potentially landing in the $1.35–$1.60 range.

The Current Profit Landscape for XRP Investors

As of June 2025, XRP traders who invested before the remarkable November 2024 rally—when the token was priced below $0.50—are now reaping substantial rewards. According to Glassnode data, the average daily profit realized by these investors is around $68.8 million. This significant figure reflects a thriving market for those who got in early, with returns on investment soaring beyond 300% for some.

The sizable profits predominantly stem from a specific cohort of traders who have started to distribute their holdings as the price has tripled in value. This profit-taking activity suggests a potential shift in market sentiment, as early investors may be looking to cash out in anticipation of market volatility.

Historical Patterns: A Warning Sign?

The current trading behavior among XRP investors mirrors what transpired before the 2017 market peak. Back then, XRP experienced an exponential rise from about $0.005 to more than $2.50 in just under a year. This meteoric rise was accompanied by a surge in profit-taking, which was a precursor to a devastating 90% market downturn following the peak.

Historically, periods of high profit-taking have been followed by significant corrections, raising concerns about XRP’s current trajectory. A repeat of the historical fractal could indicate another downturn looming on the horizon if trading behaviors do not stabilize.

The Impact of Holder Composition

Adding complexity to the current market environment is the fact that over 70% of XRP’s realized market cap has been generated between late 2024 and early 2025. This essentially means most of the market is now occupied by newer holders, creating a top-heavy market structure that is historically vulnerable to sharp sell-offs.

This concentrated holder composition can be detrimental during times of increased volatility. If those newer holders—particularly those who recently entered the market—begin to exit, it could lead to dramatic price movements, akin to what we saw in past market cycles.

The SOPR Indicator and Decline Risks

Another crucial indicator to watch is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which measures whether coins are being sold at a profit or a loss. Data shows that holders who purchased XRP in the last 3 to 6 months are experiencing a steady decline in their SOPR, indicating their selling behavior is skewed toward realizing losses.

As of June 21, the average purchase price for the 3m–6m cohort stands at $2.28, while those who bought XRP between 6 and 12 months ago have an average price of $1.35. With XRP currently trading around $2.14, newer holders are at risk of selling at a loss, while the 6m–12m holders have a significant cushion to absorb a potential downturn, estimated at around 35%.

Given this context, XRP may drop to the $1.50–$1.60 range, with the possibility of testing the $1.35 level, where older holders would begin to feel pressure to sell as well.

Navigating the Bearish Patterns

The realized price suggests the possibility of further declines toward the $1.30 mark, a significant threshold that signals a bearish reversal pattern known as a descending triangle. Such patterns are typically formed during upward trends, increasing the odds of a breakout to the downside.

However, there is still hope for XRP to recover. A decisive bounce from the 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA) might invalidate the current bearish setup, opening doors for a potential climb towards $3 or even higher.

Keep these dynamics in mind as the market continues to develop, keeping a watchful eye on trading behaviors, profit metrics, and overall market sentiment.

This article does not serve as financial advice or recommendations. Investments carry risk, and individuals should conduct their own research.